# Mazhar Waseem

> Mazhar Waseem is a Professor of Economics at the University of Manchester. His research focuses on the public finance of emerging economies: how firms and individuals respond to tax and transfer policies, and how tax design and enforcement can be improved in weak-enforcement environments. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the London School of Economics and is a Research Associate at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research, and a Research Associate at the International Growth Centre.

Contact: mazhar.waseem@manchester.ac.uk · Department of Economics, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3s2uCBoAAAAJ
CV: https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/resume_mazhar.pdf

## Working papers

- [Harder to Evade, Easier to Distort: The Welfare Costs of Anti-Avoidance Rules](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/URA_ProfitShifting_July2026.pdf) — with Muhammad Bashir, Usama Jamal, and Kyle McNabb. July 2026. Evaluates the global shift from capital-based to earnings-based anti-avoidance rules using Uganda's regime change.
- [Multigenerational Effects of Prenatal Exposure to Ramadan](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/Cejka_Waseem_2026_In-Utero_Exposure.pdf) — with Timotej Cejka. July 2026. Estimates long-run and intergenerational effects of maternal Ramadan fasting using Pakistani administrative and survey data.
- [Size-Based Policies and Firm Growth: Evidence from Pakistan](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/PAK_VAT_Threshold_October_2024.pdf) — with Muhammad Bashir, Zehra Farooq, and Usama Jamal. October 2024. Causal effects of raising Pakistan's VAT registration threshold on firm growth.
- [The Network Origins of Firm Dynamics: Contracting Frictions and Dynamism with Long-Term Relationships](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/NetworkDynamics.pdf) — with Johannes Boehm, Ezra Oberfield, and Ruairidh South. September 2024. Theory and evidence on how firm-to-firm relationships shape firm dynamics, using Indian and Pakistani data.
- [Detection Without Deterrence: Long-Run Effects of Tax Audit on Firm Behavior](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/PakAudit_Jul2021.pdf) — with Michael Best and Jawad Shah. July 2021. Randomized audits of Pakistan's VAT-filer population detect substantial evasion but do not deter it.

## Publications

- [Firm Adaptation in Production Networks: Evidence from Extreme Weather Events in Pakistan](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/Pakistan_Floods.pdf) — with Clare Balboni and Johannes Boehm. American Economic Review, forthcoming.
- [Does the Value-Added Tax Add Value? Lessons Using Administrative Data from a Diverse Set of Countries](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/Brockmeyer_etal_2024.pdf) — with Anne Brockmeyer, Giulia Mascagni, Vedanth Nair, and Miguel Almunia. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 38(1), 107–132, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.38.1.107
- [Overclaimed Refunds, Undeclared Sales, and Invoice Mills: Nature and Extent of Noncompliance in a Value-Added Tax](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/VATNoncompliance_February_2022.pdf) — Journal of Public Economics, 218, 104783, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104783
- [The Role of Withholding in the Self-Enforcement of a Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Pakistan](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/VATSelfEnforcement_April2020.pdf) — Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(2), 336–354, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00959
- [How Do Taxpayers Respond to Public Disclosure and Social Recognition Programs? Evidence from Pakistan](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/PakPublicDisclosure_Feb2020.pdf) — with Joel Slemrod and Obeid Ur Rehman. Review of Economics and Statistics, 104(1), 116–132, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00929
- [Does Cutting the Tax Rate to Zero Induce Behavior Different from Other Tax Cuts? Evidence from Pakistan](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/Waseem_2020_RESTAT.pdf) — Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(3), 426–441, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00832
- [Taxes, Informality and Income Shifting: Evidence from a Recent Pakistani Tax Reform](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/Waseem2018_JPubE_TaxesInformality.pdf) — Journal of Public Economics, 157, 41–77, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2017.11.003
- [Production versus Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/BestetAl_PakistanEvasion_2015.pdf) — with Michael Best, Anne Brockmeyer, Henrik Kleven, and Johannes Spinnewijn. Journal of Political Economy, 123(6), 1311–1355, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1086/683849
- [Using Notches to Uncover Optimization Frictions and Structural Elasticities: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan](https://mazharwaseem.com/static/uploads/Kleven_Waseem_2013.pdf) — with Henrik Kleven. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(2), 669–723, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt004